One argument a month about where search is heading, with the evidence it rests on and the parts that are guesswork clearly marked as guesswork. It is the only stream here that is openly opinion, which is why it carries the strictest rules.
What each issue covers
The argument, stated in the first paragraph rather than built up to.
The evidence, with sources and dates, separated into what is confirmed, what is observed in my own data, and what is inference.
What could happen, and the conditions under which it would.
What is uncertain, which is usually the longest section and always present.
How a small business should prepare, or, more often, why doing nothing yet is the right call.
Where my previous calls landed. Every issue scores an earlier one. Right, wrong, or too early to tell.
Why the scoring section exists
Anyone can publish predictions. Almost nobody goes back and marks them.
A stream that never revisits its own calls is entertainment. Scoring them is uncomfortable, occasionally embarrassing, and the only thing that makes the next prediction worth reading. Where a call was wrong, the issue says so plainly and tries to work out why, rather than quietly reframing it as half right.
How it’s written
The argument is falsifiable. If nothing could prove it wrong, it isn’t a prediction, it’s a mood.
No timescales I can’t defend. “Within eighteen months” needs a reason, not a feeling.
Opinion is labelled as opinion. The whole stream is a view, and the individual claims inside it still get marked.
Who it’s for
People making decisions that take more than a quarter to play out: whether to invest in a content programme, whether to rebuild a site, whether AI search changes the plan. If you want this week’s news, the weekly roundup is the better read.
The archive
[PAUL TO ADD: the issue list, plus the running scoreboard of previous calls.]
The other regulars
State of Search runs weekly, Content Marketing fortnightly, State of AI monthly, and the tests publish a prediction before each result for much the same reason this stream scores itself. Everything sits on the writing page.